Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Playing It Forward Through Backward Induction

This post is about thinking through the possible consequences of the hearing by the House Committee on the January 6, 2021 events.  My premonitions about this have caused me considerable anxiety. I'm going to try to put those aside in this post and do the type of analysis that blends knowledge about how people learn, on the one hand, with economics/game theory, on the other.  

The first speaks to the question of how Trump supporters will react to the evidence that is provided during the hearings (and the evidence that has already been provided).  Yesterday, while overhearing what was being aired on MSNBC while my wife was watching TV, the following argument was made more than once.  In a situation where people hear evidence that counters their prior held view, who the messenger is matters.  The House Committee has been careful to present the evidence from Republicans in Trump's corner.  Specifically, much was made of the testimony given by former Attorney General William Barr.  If this argument holds sway, then by the time the hearings have concluded most Americans will conclude that the election wasn't stolen and that claiming otherwise was a diversion created by President Trump for his own personal and political benefit. 

But there is a quite different possibility entirely.  The following paragraph is taken from a post I wrote about a decade ago called: Is reasoning taking a beating?  I think the entire post is relevant for understanding our current politics, but the particular paragraph is especially relevant while not being about politics at all. 

In the book, What the Best College Teachers Do, Ken Bain teaches us that students don't know what to do when they confront evidence that contradicts their prior held world view.  Perhaps it is surprising to learn that the initial student reaction is to deny the evidence.  The world view has sanctity and deep down the student wants to preserve it.  The excellent teacher understands the tension the student is under.  With patience and persistence, the instructor nudges the student to reconsider his position.  It would be good for that position to account for the evidence that is observed.  Of course, in this case Bain is referring to an academic matter.  When looking at circular motion the students are apt to have an Aristotelian view.  A Newtonian perspective appears unnatural.  There is a getting used to period necessary to take on the new perspective.  There is leadership in helping students make the transition.

This paragraph suggests that people might very well retain their prior world view in spite of evidence to the contrary.  Further, in regard to the events of January 6, 2021, there is obviously a question of whether people watch the hearings directly and in full or if, instead, they watch the hearings as they've been filtered through their favorite news outlet, which cherry picks segments and excludes much of the rest.  There is no doubt that viewers of Fox News are getting a different story than viewers of MSNBC. 

Thus, it seems more than possible that one of two different scenarios will prevail.   In the first scenario, the vast majority of Americans converge in the belief that the 2020 election was not stolen.  There may still be substantial disagreement about how to manage the situation given such beliefs, which I would summarize as either punish severely or largely forgive and forget.  But in this first scenario we'd be coming at these managing-the-situation questions with a general consensus of what had occurred.  In the second scenario, there is no such consensus.  We remain a divided nation about whether the 2020 election was stolen.  And members of each side in this hold contempt for members of the other side. 

Now, let's complicate this admittedly simple characterization some.  This is about the intensity of the belief as measured by the perceived consequences assuming the belief is true.  For Democrats, especially the ones who are regular watchers of MSNBC, the nation is in crisis and is under grave risk that we will become a fascist state.  But, for example, consider those swing voters who voted for Obama but then switched to vote for Trump.  Many of them may be upset at the Democrats now because of the high inflation they are seeing as well as the shortages of goods (notably baby formula).  These voters may vote Republican in November, even if they believe the election was not stolen in 2020.  

Thus, we now have two dimensions to consider.  The first is whether the hearings are persuasive in convincing Americans that there was no steal.  The second is in regards to which party controls the House after the elections in November.   To this one might further complicate things by considering the behavior of Congressional Republicans between now and the November elections.  Will the House Republicans led by Kevin McCarthy stick with their current line, that the hearings are a sham?  Or, in the event that the hearings do appear to be broadly persuasive, might these House Republicans change their tune and then help to achieve consensus?   And, surely, there can be further dimensions to complicate the picture even more.  But I see no reason in doing so now for the purpose of the analysis. 

We've reached the point where we can perform the backward induction.  In the economics/game theory approach, one solves for the equilibrium in the future first, or solves for all the possible equilibria in the future when the future is not uniquely determined, and then, given that future to fix expectations, one solves for equilibrium (or equilibria) in the present.  What seems evident now is that the January 6, 2021 House Committee members have a strong preference for the outcome where the hearings are broadly persuasive, while the House Republicans under McCarthy have the opposite preference.  If most Americans now line up with one side or the other at present, what will they do if their side wins and what will they do if their side loses?

Those questions seem straightforward enough and yet they are too difficult for me to respond to with straightforward answers.  Instead, I will give some unknowns for me.  Are the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers far out there and thus unlike most Trump supporters who believe the election was stolen?  Or is there a continuum of sorts here?  In other words, I would certainly predict there would be more violence in the event that the hearings are broadly persuasive, more so if the Democrats retain the House, but it's very hard to have a sense of the scale of that violence.  Would it be a fringe activity or the beginning of a civil war?  A further unknown is how the police, in particular, but really all law enforcement, respond to the threat of such violence.  And here the complications may be more obvious.  If these fringe Trump supporters are in possession of large amount of assault weapons, as seems likely to me, law enforcement and warfare will seem to blend.  Will the police get strong support from the rest of America, even if events in the last couple of years have challenged such support?  

Now lets consider the other possibility, where the hearings are only mildly persuasive to those who supported Trump and there remains a large following of Trump supporters who believe the 2020 election was stolen, even after the hearings conclude.  How will Democrats react in this case?  I will answer this one from my own perspective.  There seems to be way too much trust in the system to warrant it and I have concluded some time ago that the system is broken and requires a strong response.  Jamelle Bouie's column today asserts that this is a generational thing, where younger Democrats agree that the system is broken but older ones cling to current beliefs as if it were the past where the system did function reasonably well (the Vietnam War and Watergate notwithstanding).  If the system is broken and your side seems to be losing in the current political conflict, what then?  Is there a sensible alternative to resorting to violence at this point?  Or, if we would be heading to fascism under this scenario, would any non-violent alternative amount to appeasement?

Suppose you answered yes to that last question, but you recognized that Democrats, who are largely anti gun, are terribly unprepared for a violent alternative that might escalate into a civil war.  What would you do then?  On a personal note, I get a large number of solicitations from Democrats for funding their campaigns, both by email and by snail mail.  I have donated in the past on occasion.  This, I suppose, is how the system works now.  But I have not received any communications about preparing for the possible contingency that is described in the first sentence of this paragraph.  Indeed, I don't think that elected officials of either party want to openly talk about a broken system.  If that's right, leadership on this will have to come from elsewhere.  I would like to see evidence of such leadership.  I would then give my support to their effort. 

These days I write a piece like this essay largely to get the ideas out of my system, if I can.  In the past I've found that when I put in the effort to write up my ideas, I can move onto something else in my thinking.  If I don't write in this way, I'll just keep stewing about it over and over again   I'm hoping to get past my fixation with this piece.  

I learned when I was a campus administrator that while writing this blog and discussing controversial issues I should put forward arguments which were less advocacy for a particular approach and more inquiry into the issues at hand.  Style-wise, that's what I've tried for in this piece.  If you are one of the rare few who have reached this point in the reading, I hope it has piqued your interest in getting at answers to these questions, and thanks for your attention.

When You Don't Have It Made In The Shade

There’s farmer Lan
Now sporting a tan
Not part of the plan
But you do what you can.
#ANewGeezerCrazeCatchingSomeRays

Monday, June 13, 2022

Very Hot Indeed

So the heatwave begins
Atonement for our sins
Of which there have been many
And good deeds, have there been any?
#TheSummerOfOurDiscontentAlasItWillNotRelent

Sunday, June 12, 2022

How Do Each Of Us React To The Recent News?

Trying to understand
The attraction of the sand
And if there is something instead
Of merely burying my head.
#NotCopingSoMopingThoughItSeemsToBlockHoping

Saturday, June 11, 2022

It's No Longer Couth To Utter The Truth

From Liberal bias in the press
Murdoch made a great big mess
So now we have different versions of news
Not to elucidate, mainly to confuse.
#WhenTheFourthEstateIsInclinedToPrate

Friday, June 10, 2022

How do you persuade somebody that they've been brainwashed?

I have been spending much of the day trying to reconcile last night's hearing with this long opinion piece from the NY Times, particularly this paragraph.  

The right’s new culture war represents the worldview of people the sociologist Donald Warren called “Middle American radicals,” or M.A.Rs. This demographic, which makes up the heart of Mr. Trump’s electoral base, is composed primarily of non-college-educated middle- and lower-middle-class white people, and it is characterized by a populist hostility to elite pieties that often converges with the old social conservatism. But M.A.Rs do not share the same religious moral commitments as their devoutly Christian counterparts, both in their political views and in their lifestyles. As Ross Douthat noted, nonchurchgoing Trump voters are “less likely to be married and more likely to be divorced” than those who regularly attend religious services. No coincidence, then, that a 2021 Gallup poll showed 55 percent of Republicans now support gay marriage — up from just 28 percent in 2011.

The core question is this: how will the M.A.Rs react to the House Committee investigation of the events on January 6, 2021.  Will they treat it as a witch hunt and nothing more? They surely will be getting a filtered version of the hearings and what was said and shown there.  Somewhere, I can't remember the source now, I heard that Fox Business aired the hearings but Fox News did not.  Do M.A.Rs rely primarily and perhaps exclusively on Fox News for staying up to date?  If you presume that's true and you presume as well that Fox News will treat the investigation as part of the new culture war, then there would seem to be no way for the American people as a whole to reach the same conclusion about the events on January 6, 2021.  What would be the consequences of that?

It seems to me then the election in November can't work with the vast majority of people accepting the results, but now we're talking about elections on a state level and a Congressional district level.  There will be chaos.  Can such chaos resolve itself in short order?  I don't see how it can.  

If the election is left unresolved, the instability will lead to violence.  Indeed, there may be threatened violence to intimidate voters on Election Day.  There could very well be a tit-for-tat that would then escalate.  That's my fear. 

Those who are trusting of the normal electoral process, more Democrats then Republicans at this point, probably expect that the police and possibly the military would be brought in to squelch the violence.  So, part of what I've been scratching my head about is this.  If you did a political polling of the police and the military, what fraction of them are M.A.Rs?  Would those who are take sides in the aftermath of the election rather than perform their duty?

There is too much I don't know here to think this through fully.  But it certainly has me worried. 

Thursday, June 09, 2022

The Chips Are In

Chocolate chocolate chip
Or regular chocolate chip?

I would gladly play hookie
To have a good cookie.
#AtBreakfastASnackIsBetterThanAWisecrack

Monday, June 06, 2022

It's All A Blur

Thinking while your glasses are smudged
There's a tendency for your ideas to fudge
In your mind you see
With uncertainty
Finding your way takes quite a long trudge.
#ItSeemsTheDustInTheHouseHasSpecialAffinityForMyGlasses

Sunday, June 05, 2022

Say It Five Times Fast

Twisting your tongue
Among the young
Is a form of play

But when adults misspeak
More than once a week
We question what they say.
#UniqueNewYork

Saturday, June 04, 2022

Packaging Versus What's In The Box

When the title is compelling
But the column is boring
We're done in by the selling
Which we should be ignoring.
#ExcessPromotionCreatesACommotion

Friday, June 03, 2022

The Innocence of Youth

When a little boy stomps in a puddle
There is no accompanying intellectual muddle
It's just the thing to do
With his foot in his shoe
Later in bed his Teddy he will cuddle.
#ChildhoodForAWhileMischiefWithoutGuile

Thursday, June 02, 2022

Right As Rain

The recent weather forecasts have been off
But who am I to scoff
For when economists predict
It is surely an edict
That some doubting Thomas will cough.
#SkepticismHealthyAndOtherwise

Wednesday, June 01, 2022

Take A Deep Breath

When plan A has gone off the rails
And all else that's been tried also fails
Then it's time for a smile
And to wait a good while
Reconsidering goals helps to exhale.
#ModestAspirationLimitsPerspiration

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

The French Open

Tennis when played on clay
Groundstrokes should win the day
But there are always curves
Which amount to nerves
And determination will have its say.
#ItDontMeanAThingIfYouAintGotThatSwing

Monday, May 30, 2022

Oh What A Beautiful Morning

Conjuring up the powers to beguile
With the simple aim to make you smile
As the day begins it's very sunny
That should be paired with a bit of funny.
#TheDispositionProposition

Sunday, May 29, 2022

The Kids Do Grow Up.....Eventually

When the children become adults
The thing about the results
They want happy p's
So aim to please
And even enjoy the technology consults!
#AcrossTheGenerationsAffectionAndLiberation

Saturday, May 28, 2022

We Are Descending Beyond A Happy Ending

When the Beast
Has lost his yeast
And Beauty is no more

Then the game
Becomes assigning blame
And pining for Elsinore.
#DealingWithNowEvenJeanCocteauWouldntKnowHow

Friday, May 27, 2022

Junk Food Makes ForJunk Ideas

The irrelevant elephant
Made an argument
That was elegant

While the bandito mosquito
Made a chomp
With a Cheeto.
#FoodForThoughtIsWhatYouOught

Thursday, May 26, 2022

Related and Obligated

The siblings
Began their quibbling
Because there was no appetizer for nibbling.

While the cousins
Of whom there were dozens
Hope the long email simply wasn't.

#ADifferentTheoryOfRelativity

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

A Simple Way To Enjoy The Day

Starting the day with a treat
A way to keep the disposition sweet
Then a bad joke or two
Before bidding adieu
And you too will feel complete.
#BeforeTheNewspaperOrTVNewsShow

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Our Fallibility In The Simple Puzzles We Play

In wordplay taking a tumble
So cheating while doing the Jumble
What a relief
To end the grief
Next time on the theme you won't fumble.
#UnlikeTheRangeSometimesThereIsADiscouragingScrambledWord

Monday, May 23, 2022

The Long Term Consequences Of Sustained Isolation

Slithering into madness
After a prolonged sadness
It would seem
A frightening dream
Repeatedly making a bad mess.
#DescendingIntoTheAbyssCanBeHardToResist

Saturday, May 21, 2022

When The Road Not Taken Turns Into The Beaten Path

Drained by repeated convention
So looking for personal reinvention
Then trying something new
With which to make a to-do
Yet wanting early success defeated the intention.
#AimingForASplashLeadsToACrash

Friday, May 20, 2022

With Apologies To The Doors

Riders on the storm
Riders on the storm
Practicing their form
Becoming the new norm
We feel so all alone
Weird skills we do hone
Riders on the storm.

#TheyAreTheBellwetherForRepeatedNastyWeather

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Our National Politics in Metaphor

The Congressional Republicans are Jabez Stone.  Who will be their Dan'l Webster?
https://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks06/0602901h.html

It occurs to me that we can't talk rationally across party lines, but metaphors such as this might still be possible topics of conversation that can be batted around.  The original story by Stephen Vincent Benet is definitely worth the read, in its own right.  And as a metaphor for now, I think it illuminates as well.

Civil War Seems The Inevitable Conclusion

Connecting the past to the present
The conclusion is rather unpleasant
Hoping appeasement
Will provide an easement
Simply enables the torment to ferment.
#TheRoadToFascism

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

When People Are Perceived As Things

When someone always speaks in the first person
Anyone else then becomes an object
After that the situation will worsen
Lacking kindness and showing no sense of respect.
#WeMighEvenDiscardThoseWeDisregard

Monday, May 16, 2022

The Dwarfs After Snow White Married The Prince

When Grumpy felt frumpy
He would chat with Doc
Who said Sleepy was creepy
And that's no crock.

Since it was Happy who took a nappy
To counter the shock
While Dopey was mopey
As his timepiece went tick-tock.
#WhatAboutSneezyAndBashful


Sunday, May 15, 2022

Nathaniel Hawthorne Junior High

Like their older siblings who came before
They too attended seventy-four
Where you had to take shop

And homeroom was a prop
To park your coat, then offer so much more.
#7thGradeWasNotQuiteAnEscapade

Saturday, May 14, 2022

This One Is More Than 280 Characters

The nestling became stuck in the tree
Where no other birds could be found
The nestling struggled to be set free
To be able to walk on the ground.

Taking it all in was the giraffe
Who said to herself - what the heck?
She had to suppress an inner laugh
But then decided to stick out her neck.
#AFriendIndeedWhenSomeoneIsInNeed

Friday, May 13, 2022

College Kids On The Skids

Bring back Spanky and Alfalfa
Who really liked playing hookie
It's not a matter of nostalgia
But how 'bout a chocolate chip cookie?
#YouCantHaveFunWhenUnderTheGun

Thursday, May 12, 2022

The Last Place You Look

Putting dishes away in the wrong place
Will that lead to you losing face?
Some cooking stuff
Seems exotic fluff
Knowing where it goes your memory will erase.
#WhenASenseOfResponsibilityAndAnInstinctForSlothAreOpposed

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Will-O'-The-Wisp

An idea comes as a flicker
You'll lose it if you aren't quicker
Then with some dismay
You find that you will say
It won't reappear and that's the kicker.
#TheSubconsciousTeasesUsWithItsMysteries

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

When Monopoly Was A Good Thing

If you take a ride on the Reading Railroad
And do not pass Go
Your stash of cash may implode
Depending on who owns it, you know.
#TheRollOfTheDiceGaveTheGameSpice

Monday, May 09, 2022

Dissonance - Cognitive and Otherwise

I want to contrast the day to day life I lead - too much time sitting in front of the computer, wisecracking with friends and family during the occasional Zoom call, complaining about the various aches and pains mostly which are due to arthritis, on a daily basis doing some short form writing while much less less frequently writing something long form such as this post, worrying about what we should have for dinner, tracking how the Yankees are doing now that it's baseball season, and a host of other behaviors that I would describe as normal, even if they are not completely routine.  Our downstairs furnace/AC has not been functioning and today the guy from Lanz is here to do repairs and the semi-annual maintenance.  It turns out that the thermostat had gone bad (no idea why) and was just replaced.  So the unit is functioning now.  Hurray!!  Day to day existence does provide its little victories now and then.  And it provides its little pleasures too.  Yesterday to celebrate Mother's day we went to Sun Singer for happy hour.  We had a glass of wine (better quality than the normal fare we have at home) and a margherita flatbread which was very tasty.   We sat outside for that.  If the weather remains mild, we'll be doing that more frequently.  I wear a mask when going shopping, which now seems to be the new normal, but I don't wear one at home, even when the repairman is here to visit.  Not perfectly consistent, I will admit.  But it seems normal to me.

There is a non-normal part of my day that I will describe below.  But first I want to contrast my usual home life with what seems to be our disastrous national politics.  Here I will list and give brief descriptions about what bugs me that I'm not seeing discussed much at all. 

  • The decline in manufacturing, which probably goes back to the 1980s but manifest for real in 1990s, coupled with the decline in unions (remember that Reagan busted PATCO, which was the start of the whole thing), was a complete disaster for White male blue collar types.  They couldn't or wouldn't adjust to service sector employment (at lower wages than they had been earning previously).  This is the fundamental source of anger among Trump's base. 
  • The second war in Iraq, the one that followed U.S. involvement in Afghanistan after 9/11, was another complete disaster.  There weren't any WMDs.  The Iraqi people didn't want Americans there.  Many vets after returning home committed suicide.  Since the military is all volunteer, one wonders how many of these people enlisted in the first place because of poor economic prospects at home.  If that was typical, the Iraq war was rubbing salt into the wound.
  • People who are not healthy from an economic perspective often become unhealthy in a way where they need to see a medical doctor.  The opioid epidemic was largely concentrated in these blue collar types and, in a downward spiral, made them unemployable thereafter.  Life became hopeless for them. 
  • If the regular labor market wasn't going to solve this issue, then perhaps government spending in the form of massive infrastructure investment would provide a sufficient number of decent blue collar jobs.  Further, America's infrastructure has been declining at least since Reagan, so this would be killing two birds with one stone. This piece by Felix Rohatyn and Everett Ehrlich to establish a national infrastructure bank came out prior to the 2008 election.  That never got done.  You might argue that if the Democrats had fought off the Tea Party challenge in 2010 and retained control of the House, it would have gotten done then.  Alternatively, you might argue that this should have preceded the fight for Obamacare, since the case for doing something big about infrastructure should have had cross-party appeal and there would have been a better chance for the Democrats to maintain control of the House that way.

In sum, we don't connect our present social ailments to our history in a very good way.  This has let Trump own the MAGA types by feeding them red meat - xenophobia and racism - without doing anything of note to help them economically.  We know from history that movements toward fascism are prefaced by economic dislocation of the masses.  This gives a strong reason to connect to our history.  Nonetheless, we don't seem to do it.

Let me turn to the next set of issues which can be summed up with two points:

  • Democrats are too reactive.  We knew that the Supreme Court was going to overturn Roe ever since Amy Coney Barrett was appointed an Associate Justice.  Why else was there a rush to get that appointment in while Trump was still President?  How come it takes Alito's leaked draft to elicit such a strong response?  Why wasn't a well planned strong response contemplated and articulated much earlier?
  • Democrats put too much faith in the system and that it will correct itself.  There is ample evidence that the system has been manipulated by the Republicans in a way that is horrible for democracy.  Why should anyone trust the system now?  And if that's the right way to consider things, why not work through outside-the-system approaches that can be effective?  

Then there is the flip side of this.  In a recent opinion piece by Jamelle Bouie called Why Republicans Are So Angry About the Supreme Court Leak, he argues that:

When McConnell led the Senate Republican caucus in a blockade of President Barack Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court in 2016 and then killed what remained of the judicial filibuster the next year to place Neil Gorsuch in the seat instead, they diminished the legitimacy of the court. When those same Republicans looked past a credible accusation of sexual assault to confirm Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, they again diminished the legitimacy of the court. And when, with weeks left before the 2020 presidential election, Republicans ignored their own rule from four years earlier — that an election-year vacancy “should not be filled until we have a new president” — to place Amy Coney Barrett on the bench in a rushed, slapdash process, they once more diminished the legitimacy of the court.

I would add to this McConnell's blockade of Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland had a significant influence on the 2016 election as it strongly encouraged those who wanted to get rid of Roe to vote, with that having an immediate impact given the open seat on the Court.  Further, the Senate's perfunctory dismissal of the charges in the two impeachment trials let a criminal President off the hook.  The outcome of the first trial allowed Trump to nominate Amy Coney Barrett, even though she must have been well aware of his criminal acts. This followed William Barr's perfunctory dismissal of the Mueller Report. In our country's move toward fascism, there have been many steps taken.  The enablers are first McConnell, then Barr, and then other Republicans in Congress.  Their lack of spine in dealing with these dismal realities offers another reason to work outside the system to stop this descent into societal madness. 

We seem headed for Civil War.  How much of that will be violence versus information warfare of some kind or still some other form of warfare I cannot say.  But there doesn't seem to me to be a path that gets everyone back to a normally functioning society without such a civil war happening first.  I can't be the only one who thinks and feels this way.  

Now let me try to bring this back to me personally and how it impacts my day to day existence.  At home, my wife and I often do separate things.  She will watch TV - often gardening shows, or shows about house fixer uppers, some light comedy too, but then a good dose of MSNBC.  I'm sitting at my computer, which is in a different room, but when I don't use earbuds I can hear the TV.  And once in a while it sparks a rage in me.  Sometimes it's reading something online that sparks the rage. I don't do anything about it, but I do think about it.  I know from when I was working full time that anger is not a good emotion for me.  I lose my rationality when I'm angry and I get even more single-minded than I usually am.  I'm okay with getting angry when the ref makes a bad call in a basketball game I'm watching.  But that's about the only situation where I think my anger is okay.  Otherwise, I'm afraid that my anger will take me down a bad path.

I have thought for a while that high-level Democrats should model voters like me after the Walter White character in Breaking Bad.  In addition to the anger, there is substantial intelligence coupled with a demoralizing sense of impotence.  And some of this anger is directed at Democrats because they seem not to get this - they are still trusting the process implicitly.  

I hope they'll figure it out before it's too late.

Varying Points of View

The ineffectual intellectual
Advanced the proposition
That knowledge is contextual.

While the uncouth youth
Who grew up in Duluth
Went in search of absolute truth.
#ADifferenceInPerspectiveCanEvokeAnInvective

Sunday, May 08, 2022

Mouthing Off

Function and Dys
Along with their sis
On treats they were nibbling
Each and every sibling.
#ThoughElatedTheyWerOrallyFixated

Saturday, May 07, 2022

The Spirit of Norman Rockwell

The husbands are left to their own devices
As the wives converse about gardens and spices
In the suburban life we're getting to know
Everyone is your neighbor and taking it slow.
#TheSunIsShiningSoItIsTimeToMakeHay

 

Thursday, May 05, 2022

The Winning Streak Is Over

All good things come to an end
We hope another one can extend
The Yankees hold on first place
Well positioned for the pennant race.
#ItAintOverTilItsOver

Wednesday, May 04, 2022

The Vicious Cycle

The overly frustrated
Are readily manipulated
By obtuse views
Supported by fake news
Then our politics becomes completely castrated.
#HistoryRepeatsButTheInternetGivesItANovelSpin

Tuesday, May 03, 2022

Twas Brillig

The Jabberwocky
Played knock hockey
But didn't use a stick.

He bumped into Puck
Then ran out of luck
As the board became too slick.

#WhatDoWeRememberFromEnglishClassInHighSchool

Monday, May 02, 2022

No Intents Offended

A social goof
During an innocent spoof
May inadvertently rile
The frown replaces the smile.

Then it depends
On making amends
In a way that's real
With touch and feel.

#SteppingIntoPooWhatNextShouldYouDo

Sunday, May 01, 2022

Severe Storms And Changing Norms

When the lightning strikes close
And you wonder if you'll be toast
Then it's worth taking note
Of those Mother Nature hadn't smote.
#ForABriefTimeItWasVeryScaryLastNight

Saturday, April 30, 2022

A Stroll Toward Droll

Trying to be funny
Usually becomes about money

While deliberately being odd
Ends up turning into sod

The ordinary transaction
May be replete

And ready for extraction
With bits that are offbeat.

#YouWillFindItInTheLastPlaceYouLook

Friday, April 29, 2022

Perception

With clarity of thought
But dirty eyeglasses
WYSIWYG becomes naught
Imagination then surpasses.

#LookWithinToOvercomeChagrin


Thursday, April 28, 2022

Making Hay

When Groucho
Met a gaucho
Of course
The horse
Was of a different color.

And when Huntley
Uttered bluntly
Then Brinkley
Responded distinctly
Though quite a bit duller.

#GiantsFromOurYouthNowPastLongInTheTooth



Wednesday, April 27, 2022

When Not To Take Advantage Of The Situation

Though he was a handsome devil
He decided to keep things level
And not let his good looks
Allow him to cook the books
So his firm wouldn't fully dishevel.
#OneNeedNotAtoneIfOneHasAnEthicalBone

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

To Weet His Own

I'm not bitter
About leaving Twitter
Just something new
For me to do.
#WhenTheWorldIsTryingThenTrySomethingElse


Temporary Home After Leaving Twitter

I would like to leave my old Tweets up for a while but I intend now to leave Twitter and find a new host for my rhymes.  Once upon a time, I wrote longer rhymes and posted them to this blog.  You can find them under the label, Searching for the 3-L lllama.  But I received some constructive criticism about my meter being off.  The word limit in Twitter actually helped with that - I couldn't go so far astray.  Plus, perhaps it gave me a somewhat different audience. 

So while I don't think this will be the long term solution, for now it should be an okay substitute.  I've made a new label, Temporary Twitter Replacement.  Then I can take my time in finding a new alternative.  I've also thought about republishing some of the old Tweets, but in different form.  That would keep me busy.  


Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Our Ideals and the Difficulty in Their Implementation

This post is another one where I try to make sense of a bunch things I've been reading and viewing.  Let me start with this piece from the New-Gazette, which tickled my funny bone but in an odd way: UI adds diversity, equity, inclusion statement to faculty-promotion process. Indeed in this post I want to give my thinking on advancing diversity, equity, and inclusion even though, in case it's not fully evident, as a long-time retiree I now operate totally outside the conversations that are happening on campus. This ignorance about what is going on might disqualify me, in advance, from rendering an intelligent opinion on these matters.  If so, the benefit to the post will be for me only, to get the thoughts out of my system.  Otherwise, since very few people read my blog these days, it will mostly be no harm - no foul.  

But there may be reasons why someone outside the campus conversation, yet with some knowledge of campus history, might offer up something useful.  Part of this, for me, is that going back 25 years or so I had the job of encouraging diffusion of educational technology on campus and taking the metaphor of diffusion of innovation, there might be some parallels to be drawn between the ed tech effort then and the diversity, equity, and inclusion effort now.  Then, too, I tend to be very idealistic in my thinking now, where 25 years ago I was much more low to the ground and focused on what was do-able.  It might be useful to consider what pushing beyond the envelope would be like.  Also, I have some indirect experience with the subject matter as the mentor and ghostwriter for a human rights organization in Uganda called Universal Love Alliance, which has as part of its mission to make Uganda a more inclusive society. That experience might be relevant to the current topic.  Then too, I will air what might be considered "dirty laundry" about the campus that I think is relevant.  Conceivably that would be useful if the need to make the public discussion of these issues positive and upbeat, such as in the 2022 Conversation with Senior Leadership, sweeps those parts that are dirty laundry to the side and perhaps ignores them entirely. I do think these less discussed issues should get an airing now, even if doing so ruffles some feathers.

Let me also mention this post from about a year and a half ago: Repricing - in Higher Education and in the Economy as a Whole, which was about reducing the excessive income inequality in society.   As an economist, I view extreme income inequality as the fundamental social ill that is undermining our country. The post is in the idealistic vein mentioned above.  One lesson from it, which I think is worth keeping in mind here, is that the changes have to happen across higher education if they are to work.  One campus operating alone while trying to implement these changes will be shooting itself in the foot.  (If you do make an attempt to read that post, note that it got very long and probably reads more like a white paper than a blog post.  So I made a Google Docs version, which might be easier to get through.  Also note that the pandemic was well underway at the time of the post but vaccines had yet to appear.  Consequently, some statements about the then current labor market are no longer correct today.)  I'm on less terra firma writing about diversity, equity, and inclusion, but my goal in this post is to provide a similar analysis to what I gave in the Repricing piece.

Let me get to the punchline and then return to the discussion.  With income inequality it is useful to refer to the haves and the have-nots.   Those labels may continue to be useful when discussing diversity, equity, and inclusion.  It seems to me that the bulk of the campus efforts to date have been about making the university affordable for the have-nots.  While this obviously matters, there has been little to no discussion about raising awareness among the the haves and quite possibly providing a solution where they have less. That's what we'll be considering here.

Returning to the discussion, consider these conundrums.  The U of I is highly selective regarding undergraduate admissions and some colleges within the U of I are more selective than others.  How does one reconcile selectivity with inclusion?  Further, some colleges have college-specific surcharges while others do not.  If instructional quality is positively correlated with the surcharges, as one might expect it should be, how does one reconcile the presence of these surcharges with equity?  Then, bringing this a bit lower to the ground, we have the fairly recent, pre-pandemic experience of having a large number of Chinese students on campus, as described in this piece from Inside Higher Ed.  And I know from an informal discussion group I had with three such students in spring 2015 who took a course from me the prior semester that many of these Chinese students came to the U.S. at least in part for cultural reasons, hoping for intensive interactions with American students so they could learn about the American way of life.  But the reality was that outside of classroom the vast majority of their interactions were with other Chinese students.  How does one reconcile this experience with diversity?

On the first of these conundrums, I wrote a post almost two years ago called Rethinking Elitism in Public Education that describes a hypothetical solution. I'm not holding my breath on having the ideas there see the light of day, for it seems that the pressing issue for campus leadership is finding new sources of revenue and sustaining elitism appears to be a necessary precondition for that.  On the surcharges, one can imagine providing data on expenditure per student by major, with separate results for freshman, sophomores, juniors, and seniors.  This would tie into the transfer pricing that is used by which tuition revenue gets allocated to academic departments.  I am not current on this, but I believe there was an adjustment in those formulas not that long ago, with a much greater share of tuition revenue being transferred out of the Provost's office into the colleges.  But I also believe that Deans retained discretion on how tuition income would then be allocated to the individual departments.  LAS is a monster in size, compared to the other colleges, and for this purpose perhaps it should be broken up into three units - STEM, Social Sciences, and Humanities.  This would highlight the problem of the decline of the Humanities major, with the size of Humanities departments determined by historical enrollment patterns, not just the recent past. So there is an imbalance here.  How it is addressed matters.  On the diversity issues and students getting outside their comfort zone in interacting with other students, I would hate for the answer to be that student out-of-class time must be programmed to ensure such interactions.  I think students need plenty of their own time for reflection, socializing, and doing schoolwork. But I don't see another real solution to the issue.  I will note that the informal discussion group I had was advertised to the entire class near the end of the semester. None of the other students in the class indicated an interest in it.  It's a very small sample to generalize from, but I doubt getting faculty more directly involved in some way to generate these type of interactions will produce the requisite diversity.  (I have tried recruiting for such a discussion group in previous years and in subsequent years as well.  This was the only time where I got more than one student to participate.)

Let me briefly take up the new requirement for assistant professors who are up for promotion and tenure, to produce a statement about their own activities regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion.  My immediate reaction was about what we know and what we don't know regarding the mental health of assistant professors in this situation.  The campus has made a point of talking about the mental health of undergraduates; indeed all of higher ed is talking about this. It was a very big issue even before the pandemic.  It's certainly a larger issue now.  And in this recent opinion piece by Charles Blow, he characterized all of America as having PTSD, perhaps a reasonable first pass at describing the mental outlook of most folks.  Assistant professors who are up for tenure are understood to be under a lot of stress as a consequence, apart from the pandemic.  Does adding this additional requirement for the promotion package make sense under the circumstances?

Pushing this further in my own thinking, I wondered if there are plans underway to have similar requirements for specialized faculty (who teach but are not on the tenure track) as well as for graduate student teaching assistants.  Both the specialized faculty and the graduates students have union representation.  I can envision a discussion between the union representatives and the campus on this matter along the following lines: "We'd be happy to help with the diversity, equity, and inclusion effort as long as you increase our pay for doing this additional work."  Is that in the cards?  Conversely, will highly individualized acts of this sort actually be effective or will this prove to be an albatross that in aggregate does very little of real benefit?  

Getting back to the mental health issues that many students face, this was addressed by Vice Chancellor for Student Affairs Danita Young Brown in the campus leadership video linked above.  She mentioned that the campus is trying to hire 5 new mental health counselors to be in place for the start of the fall semester. Students have requested greater access to such counselors, so this seems a sensible move. Yet I wonder why the campus doesn't consider the problem in fundamentally other ways as well.  (Elsewhere I've characterized this as treating the symptoms but not the cause.)  In particular, do we know whether certain campus programs or the behavior of other students contributes to student mental health issues?  If we don't know, are we doing some inquiry to find out?  And if we do know, are we taking steps to make the environment less toxic? In any event, why aren't we talking more about this?

Now I'll speculate a little to show what I have in mind.  In 2017 an internal memo to Google, since known as Google's Ideological Echo Chamber, became publicly available and, indeed, went viral. The memo was written by James Damore who did his undergraduate work at the U of I, I believe in quantitative biology.  The publicity around that memo created an interest in the brogrammer culture, which many women in the tech world find alienating.  At the same time that Damore was an undergraduate on campus, I taught a CHP class on Designing for Effective Change.  There was a student in ACM (a woman) who described the in-your-face style of the interactions that the students had - I thought of it as trash talking between geeks. Was that sort of behavior encouraged explicitly or condoned by faculty and staff in computing disciplines?  Were there any steps taken to limit the behavior?  I don't know the answer to these questions, but I think they are the sort of questions that should be asked and answered.

In fall 2017 and again in fall 2019 I taught an upper level economics class as a retiree.  The class was on The Economics of Organizations.  Because I had students do weekly blogging to connect their experiences to course topics, I learned a little bit about them and their history on campus.  A bit less than a third of the clas had transferred out of the College of Engineering.   Essentially all these students were either women or minority students.  I believe that most if not all of them wanted to be in the College of Business, but they didn't have a good enough GPA to achieve that.  Majoring in Economics was the next best option and several of these students also did the Business Minor.  These students were somewhat emotionally damaged by the process, as became painfully evident to me on more than one occasion.  Again I must bring up the caveat that this is a small sample from which to draw a conclusion.  Yet it is suggestive and it seems possible to get more data to determine whether this is a correct or misleading picture.

Engineering education has a reputation for being brutal to the students, going back at least since I was an undergraduate in the mid 1970s and likely well before that.  But this brutal approach is deleterious to student mental health, including those students who do get through, and it clearly is not inclusive.  When I first took over the SCALE project, I did a study on retention rates at the course level (final course enrollment divided by 10-day course enrollment).  This was background on learning whether online course components could improve retention.  What I found is that in most courses the retention rate was so high already that online couldn't improve it.  Engineering courses were different.  They had a much lower retention rate. Soon thereafter I became aware that Engineering deliberately pursued a "weed out" policy.  Some years later the U of I started to admit many more students from community colleges. The business model for Engineering adjusted to include admitting many community college students to fill the seats left vacant by those other students who had transferred out.   

Is the brutal approach that features a weed out process necessary for engineering education?  If at Illinois we tried a more accommodating approach (most likely against the preferences of the majority of College of Engineering faculty) would we start to lose students to other top engineering schools and possibly lose some faculty as well?  If so, we could only do this if those other schools also did it.  Is that possible?  I don't know.  This framing of the issues shows the dilemma we face.

* * * * *

But I don't mean to single out Engineering.  I think the issue is much broader, though measuring the deficiencies of the education may be a harder task.  According to a former student who emailed me recently, 

"Amongst my generation, education is transactional, perhaps as a byproduct of the cost of a degree."

This transactional approach might show up in how focused students seem to be about their GPA, which motivates how they go about school, and how little they seem to care about innate interest in the subject matter or, for that matter, in a deep level of self-understanding.  It is surely exacerbated by carrying a large amount of student loan debt, but is likely also there for many students from financially comfortable families, where the parents pay the student's tuition, room and board, and give additional funds for the student's recreational use. College has become a way for such parents to fulfill the bequest motive, well before their own end of life.  As such, the students have been groomed for this from quite an early age, perhaps as far back as primary school.  That so conditions their approach - to college and to life.

An alternative approach wss given by Harry Boyte, who gave a lecture about this on campus back in March 2016.  I refer to Boyte's approach as the good citizenship model of education.  

Boyte argues that college education should be primarily about making students good citizens.  Such citizenship is exercised mainly not at the ballot box but rather at the place of work.  Good citizens do whatever is necessary to make the workplace highly functional and socially responsible.  Good citizens have agency, an expression Boyte used over and over again.  This means they can size up the situation to see what is required to make matters better.  Then they can act in a way that does improve things.

One might reasonably conjecture that if students were good citizens in this way, and faculty and staff were also good citizens, then diversity, equity, and inclusion would emerge de facto on campus.  I want to complicate this picture some because I believe that members of the campus community would resist a characterization that they are not good citizens though some students, in particular, would own up to the lack of their own agency.  The complication is this.  Most people will draw a circle of those others where they'd want to act as good citizens.  With respect to people outside the circle, however, they will act selfishly.  The issue then is not whether the person is a good citizen, it is how large a circle the person draws and how large a circle we outsiders think the person should draw.  Then, to complicate matters further, it may be that there are several circles nested within each other, with the strongest form of good citizenship applying to the innermost circle only and the intensity of good citizenship weakening as one moves to the outer circles.  After all, the campus is huge and one can become completely overwhelmed by serving on too many committees, reading the papers of too many colleagues and/or students, and hosting too many visitors.  So there is an earnest question about what is the right size for the innermost circle and whether the outer circles are sufficient to support diversity, equity, and inclusion on campus.  

Nevertheless, it may be that for many good citizenship does not offer an appropriate framing for how they go about things.  So, one wonders whether such people can be educated to become good citizens and, if so, what effective education of this sort looks like.  It is here that my relationship with ULA may be useful and, in particular, this document called Universal Love Alliance and Dialogue.  It is a comparatively short document (at least by my standards) and I think is well worth the read.  I encourage the campus to develop some expertise in dialogue facilitation and then experiment with small numbers of students who go through a training workshop that features dialogue.  I want to note that ULA has conducted successful workshops of this sort with faith leaders who beforehand where homophobic.  These faith leaders are brought together in a cloistered setting, for their own safety and the workshops are typically multi-day affairs.  So this is much more in the vein of adult education than it is typical undergraduate education and surely some reasons for the effectiveness of the training are the intensity of the effort and the cathartic nature of the experience.  

Whether it is possible to do something similar on campus, I don't know.  I should also note that facilitated dialogue with students, where the facilitators are either faculty or staff members, may face the barrier that the facilitators don't really understand the prior student mindset.  In contrast, Turinawe Samson, who is the Executive Director of ULA, trained to be a Pentecostal minister and did such work until he was kicked out of the church as a dangerous person.  His background enables him to empathize completely with the faith leaders who attend the ULA workshops.  Perhaps, ultimately, the campus will develop training for student facilitators, so they can be the ones who provide the workshop training.  But even then, will students from households that are comfortable financially have the right sort of empathy for other students who come from households of modest means?  If not, what can be done to transcend these differences in family background?

We learned in the campus leadership video from Sean Garrick, Vice Chancellor for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, that there already is a small grant program in place to encourage individual efforts in this domain from students, faculty, and staff.  I believe the grants are $1,000 a piece for one year, but I may be a bit off on that detail.  I found this encouraging as grant programs are inherently opt in so unlike the new requirements to be put in place for assistant professors on the tenure track.  Early on, I believe opt in is the way to go as it will attract the innovators and early adopters to experiment with approaches.  Subsequently, as the effort scales up, some coercion may be necessary for the majority adopters to embrace the ideas. 

Yet I thought the campus grants that Vice Chancellor Garrick mentioned very modest in size, quite possibly insufficient to jump start the effort.  My thought is that a campus effort of this sort will require much more funding as well as a plan to scale up from the experimental stage, if the work done at that stage proves successful.  And the need for such funding suggests a like need for grants from foundations or wealthy individuals. But many, if not most, of the other major universities are likewise making their own efforts on diversity, equity, and inclusion.  They too will be competing for such grants.  How then can the U of I obtain its fair share of this soft money?

A sober analysis needs to be done about whether the U of I has a real and durable advantage over peers, which should then be made overt to potential funders.  Back in the mid 1990s the U of I did have such an advantage, having previously been home to the Plato Project, which meant there was already a lot of embedded knowledge on effective use of educational technology.  For many on campus, the goal was to enable Plato-like functionality over the Web; the applications CyberProf and Mallard were conceived this way.  The campus was also clear innovative in IT with Mosaic, the first graphical browser, coming out of NCSA and Eudora, a then state of the art email program coming out of the campus computing organization.  

These advantages notwithstanding, Burks Oakley, who secured the initial SCALE grant felt a need to over promise to the Sloan Foundation what would be delivered, by claiming that ALN (what we called online learning at the time) would lower the cost of instruction.  The SCALE evaluation wasn't finding this, however.  One of the reasons I was brought in to run SCALE was to make some headway on this promise.  I bring up this little bit of history because the incentive to over promise to potential grant funders is large, as a way to secure the funds, though there will be a reckoning down the road. 

When I eventually took over for Burks in running SCALE, there were three separate programs that funded ed tech activity on campus.  One was through the campus Ed Tech Board, which gave out grants of roughly $6,000 per grantee for one year, with a total funding of about $200,000 per year.  This was funded by campus.  SCALE had its own grant program. The average size of the a grant was about $20,000 per year.  Just as important from my point of view is that as the person running SCALE I would get preliminary proposals from faculty and on the basis of this understand where they were coming from and possibly negotiate in a friendly way to a modified proposal that would get the approval of our review committee.  Indeed, in this manner I could shape much of the important ed tech activity on campus.  Eventually, when we did The SCALE Efficiency Projects to meet Sloan's concern about ed tech reducing the cost of instruction, I believe I was the first mover in shaping what the internal grants would be like, so had even more control of the process.  SCALE was generously funded with $2.1M from the Sloan Foundation and $700K of matching funds from the Swanlund Gift Fund, I believe the first campus use of that particular gift.   Apart from being an internal grant provider, SCALE was also a back end supporter of ed tech.  For the life of me I now can't remember the division in funding for grants versus for back end support and administrative overhead.  But I'm sure that SCALE allocated a great deal more money to grants than did the ETB.

The third source of funds was at the University level, in a program called ALTHE which was then under the leadership of Sylvia Manning, Vice President for Academic Affairs.  Burks had been a faculty fellow in Sylvia's office the year before I came into SCALE and eventually Burks made the jump from the campus to the university.  Though the ALTHE program was really intended for the Chicago and Springfield campuses, to get them up to speed with ed tech so they could develop online programs, the plurality of the considerable funding went to Urbana, as that was where most of the then current innovative activity was happening.  The overall impact of these three programs on faculty at the Urbana campus was to give a feel of the Wild West, which the early days of the Internet contributed to.  Within the administration, it was evident there was a rivalry between the campus and the university and the lack of coordination between the two produced substantial tension.  

I was heads down with my economics research before SCALE, so have no sense whether these same politics existed when President Ikenberry was running things.  But the politics persisted even after President Stukel, Ikenberry's successor, stepped down.   The underlying problem, as I see it from my perch, is that the position of University President sounds like the top banana of the whole thing.  Yet the reality is that the Chancellor of the Urbana campus holds more real power. So the President is apt to be "creative" in order to transfer some of that power to his office.  I would hope that this is no longer an issue.  But I'm afraid it still might be.  

The last two years that the ETB had a grant program, 1999 and 2000, the grants were targeted at majority faculty who would attend a 3-day summer workshop run by the then new Center for Educational Technologies and the faculty would receive a stipend after the workshop concluded to help them get started with their own ed tech projects.  CET was the successor to SCALE (they overlapped for one year) and I became the Director of CET.  This approach with workshops made sense to me as a way to move along the diffusion curve. But CET was horribly underfunded from the get go.  SCALE funds bolstered it during that first year.  After that there was a big hole in the budget.  To fill that hole, the ETB grant funds were transferred to CET and became part of its core budget.   

I will also note that there was a change in campus leadership at the Provost level around then.  Sloan had somewhat shifted its orientation and wanted to focus on totally online programs.  While Sloan gave SCALE a renewal grant in 1998, based on the success of the SCALE Efficiency Projects, they indicated they wouldn't be giving SCALE a second renewal, even though they were happy with our work, because for the most part we weren't supporting totally online courses.  However, they did arrange for the Mellon Foundation to take over the SCALE grant and Mellon was very interested in doing so.  Yet this required getting a campus match to the grant.  The new Provost wasn't convinced that was a good idea and didn't offer up the funds.  In retrospect, we should have used the ETB funds for the campus match and then continue to do those ETB summer workshops in the years of Mellon funding.  Alas, that's not how it played out. 

Then too, many instructors who hadn't attended any of the workshops wanted to start using a course management system for the online component to their classes.  This was overwhelmingly a dull use of the technology, mainly file sharing and not much more. But it occurred with large numbers of instructors and it began to seem that CET's core mission was to enable this use.  In so doing we went from an organization that encouraged interesting adaptations of the technology to the particular course needs and instructor viewpoint and instead became a technology services provider.  This drama took a long time in playing out.  CET was eventually merged with the larger IT organization to form CITES, and the drama continued in those years as well. So the back end of the ed tech services were provided in a more technically proficient manner, but I thought we lost our true raison d'être in the process. 

I've belabored this history of SCALE, CET, and my involvement with campus ed tech, because I think there are lessons from that experience that are relevant to the current effort with diversity, equity, and inclusion.  In particular, there needs to be a plan in place for moving down the entire diffusion curve, including whether the effort can be sustained when there is a change in campus leadership.  There also has to be a realistic assessment of the revenues that can be brought to the effort after the novelty has worn off and whether there still will be campus commitment to the effort at that time.  This is a challenge.  What seems super important now may get lost in the shuffle a decade from now, with the agenda not yet complete, because some other bright new shiny object has come along to capture the attention of campus leadership.  

* * * * * 

In the back of my head I'm asking myself, what would it take to get a grant from MacKenzie Scott to support the effort, funding that would be large enough to sustain the entire diffusion curve.  Let me get back to that. 

My sense of things is that if we are to think big about diversity, equity, and inclusion we need to involve a large aggregate, such as the Big Ten Universities.  Then we need to have a major prior accomplishment for the Big Ten Academic Alliance to lay claim to, to create enough positive press that donors would be interested in funding further efforts in other areas 

My candidate for hitting a home run among the public university members of the Big Ten (sorry Northwestern) is to do away with the current system of in-state and out-of-state tuition, which made sense when states were funding the lion's share of the education cost, and replace it with a common Big Ten tuition that any student from a state that has a Big Ten university would pay to attend any public Big Ten university. The Big Ten tuition rate would be higher than the current in-state rate but lower than the the current out-of-state rate.  Let's leave its precise determination for now and consider the benefits from moving to this new arrangement.

Under the current arrangement, there is not a good substitute for the in-state flagship school, which offers both a good tuition rate and a high quality education.  The exceptions are in Indiana and Michigan, where there are two such universities in each of these states that might be thought of as substitutes for each other, but with some specialization in offerings and the division of clientele served between the two.  Elsewhere it is rather expensive to go out of state and one would likely not do so unless the student was rejected by the in-state flagship university or the student wants to enroll in a highly specialized program that doesn't exist at the in-state school or the student gets into an elite "honors program" at the out-of-state school, but does not get into the equivalent at the in-state school.  Having a fixed Big Ten tuition rate would lessen the risk across these outcomes, though admittedly cost more to attend the in-state school than it would have previously cost.  Alternatively, while many families do receive the benefit of in-state tuition, some families do not.  The uniform Big Ten tuition would be a fairer approach. 

And from the perspective of Big Ten members, there would be other benefits.  Campuses through negotiation could specialize somewhat and move away from the comprehensive approach.  Campuses would be encouraged to compute the marginal cost per student in program x as well as the average cost per student.  If the in-state tuition is below the marginal cost, the campus has no financial incentive to admit the student.  But, as far as I know, in-state tuition rates are now a political animal and are set by the Board of Trustees, in reference to historical tuition rates as well as tuition rates at certain peer institutions that are use for comparison.  It really would be better to get tuition rates more closely tied to the cost of the education. 

I'm not saying this wouldn't be a very heavy lift.  What I am saying is that this would be seen as a major accomplishment, if it could be done. That would set the groundwork for other ambitious projects in the diversity, equity, and inclusion space that are funded with large grant support.  Perhaps with this major accomplishment in hand, Mackenzie Scott would then be interested in funding the Big Ten effort in diversity, equity, and inclusion.

* * * * *

I want to make one more point and then close. When I first started as a SCALE faculty member, the year before I began to run SCALE, the approach I took in teaching my class was completely determined by imitating others who had done this stuff before me and then trying to fit that to the subject matter of my course.  I was willing to experiment with the implementation to see if it was effective, but at the time I didn't have the wherewithal to come up with an implementation that was totally of my own design.  In other words, the most effective pedagogy, especially early on, is monkey see - monkey do.  

There is learning by doing and confidence is gained when at least some of the experiments seem to pay off.  Then one might try things that are more off the beaten path.  Eventually I did that sort of thing, for example with Excelets.  (Scott Sinex is the one who spread the concept so that it has real use, mainly outside of economics.) And likewise for using student blogging in teaching economics, which given the subject matter is quite an unusual practice. However, I was already quite far along with ed tech when I started to experiment with student blogs.

There is a common mistake made that instructors are the pedagogy experts, so they know up front how to introduce diversity, equity, and inclusion ideas into their own courses.  I think that is quite wrong.  Most will be clueless about how to do this, even if they care a great deal about teaching and want to encourage all students regardless of their background.  They need to learn from the lessons of the innovators and early adopters, who do have a clue about what to try in their classrooms.  

As the innovators and early adopters have full-time jobs already, there needs to be an organization that partners with these first movers, learns from them and then provides ideas about where to start with majority faculty. This is how the mechanism should work.  

I hope we get there, but it doesn't seem that we're there yet. There are risks in moving too fast, especially about not anticipating entrenched resistance to diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts.   This piece in the Chronicle illustrates the pain that might be created when the potential resistance hasn't been assessed at all. But there are also risks in ignoring real problems that need to be address but instead letting them fester, as this other Chronicle essay illustrates.  There will be Monday morning quarterbacks who don't see the full picture but think they know better about how to implement.  In the SCALE days I didn't face much of that.  Later, when we first tried to implement an enterprise LMS, that was all I was hearing.  What I'm trying to say is that this won't be easy to get done.  I hope we can persist and do just that.

Thursday, March 24, 2022

Questions for the Coach

Often I write these posts as a way to get the ideas out of my system, so I can move onto something else.  If I don't do the writing, then I'll just keep stewing about the same thing, over and over again. So, the posts serve as therapy for me. It used to be, when I was an ed tech administrator, that the ed tech community would find some benefit from my posts as my musings would raise issues that otherwise weren't discussed.  I continue to hope there is some external benefit from the writing.  In this case I can imagine two possible benefits.  

First, fans like me care a lot about men's college basketball, in general, and Illini basketball, in particular.  That sort of passions is a great precursor to learn more about the game, if and when such learning is possible.  Brad Underwood, the Illini coach, is now in a position to teach fans more about the game, if he cares to do that.  I'm pretty sure that isn't part of his job description.  He spends a fair amount of time dealing with the press, which is part of the job.  Why put in this additional time to interact more directly with the fans?  I don't have a great answer for that other than this - most of the questions I'll consider in this post don't seem to be covered by the press.  They are of the form - here is a possible experiment in how the team might play.  What is the upside and what would be the downside of trying such an experiment? By hearing the coach's thinking on these questions, fans would learn something about the game that may otherwise elude them.  I don't want to claim that my questions are the right ones to ask, or are the questions that most fans would ask.  But maybe posing them will get others to come up with better questions still.  That would be progress.

Second, because being an Illini fan is a democratic thing, meaning there are quite a lot of us and anyone can be an Illini fan, but most fans are not former faculty nor campus administrators, this is a reasonably good way to illustrate inquiry techniques to a larger population, where otherwise inquiry approaches may be outside their personal toolset.  Yet this is really how we should learn.  The post may make that more evident. 

Before I get to my questions I'd like to make a couple of comments about Trent Frazier.  I watched the post-game press conference on YouTube after the Houston game.  When they did a close-up of Trent, he looked beaten up to me.  The actual cause may have been pink eye, as the coach reported. That's not the issue.  The issue is that he appeared to be badly injured, yet he played his regular amount of minutes, or perhaps even more because Curbelo played less.  Yet we fans didn't know he was injured till the Houston game had concluded.  I don't know how Trent did it, yet he toughed it out.  Depending on how the rest of this post turns out, I might ask later in the post about how the injury impacted Trent's performance, not just in that game but in the preceding games played after the injury happened (Indiana and Chattanooga). Then, doing this from memory, I want to discuss how Trent handled a question in a different post-game press conference for a play where he made a blind pass to Coleman Hawkins, but Coleman wasn't there. Trent took the blame for that.  We fans will never know whether it really was Trent's error or if Coleman should have been in the spot where the pass went.  It seemed as if Trent was willing to accept the blame regardless of which was the true situation. In that he showed a certain maturity that I often don't see in college students when I teach them.  (My last time teaching was fall 2019 and the class was mainly junior and seniors majoring in economics.)  I wonder how many other fans take pride in Trent's maturity, as I did.  In the grand scheme, it really is more important than winning the game.

Now onto the questions.  I will take the Houston game as source for launching my inquiry.  I thought the game bore certain similarities with the Loyola game from the year before.  

I will begin with an observation I didn't hear about in the press conference.  Omar Payne didn't play against Houston.  Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk played just two minutes.  Kofi played 38 minutes, more than his usual. 

During the season Omar and Benjamin were used exclusively as subs for Kofi.  What if there were times when Kofi was in the game and one of the other bigs were also in the game?  So if this were to happen there would be fewer wing players in the game.  Have the Illini tried that in practice?

  • With Jacob Grandison hurt, might substituting a big for a wing player make sense?  Ditto for Trent being hurt.
  • On defense, a double low post might prevent the opposition wing player from going downhill.  Can that work?
  • On offense, a high-low approach might be especially interesting if sometimes Kofi was at the top of the key, feeding the other big man, or perhaps shooting a mid range shot.  Could that work?  I'm intrigued by this possibility for next year if it is at all possible that Kofi would come back.  He'd learn new skills this way. 
  • I don't want to consider Coleman Hawkins as the other big, even though he is quite tall.  He plays more in the mold of Jacob Grandison.  But that does make one want to ask, what makes a member of the team a low-post player?  Is it strength, weight, and height in some combination?  Or is it some particular set of skills.  Kofi went against smaller but perhaps more athletic post players much of the season.  If those players were on the Illini, would they have played in the post or on the wing?

This lead-in question leads to a few different related questions.

To my knowledge, the Illini don't play zone.  For opposing teams with excellent 3-point shooting this makes sense to me.  Houston, however, doesn't fit that mold.  They shot poorly from the 3-point line but rebounded a lot of their own misses.  A zone with two bigs under the basket might make sense in this case.  Why didn't we try it?

  • Obviously, you should play in the game what you've practiced ahead of time.  Could the Illini practice playing zone, as an alternative approach and still have an effective man-to-man as their main defense?
  • All year long the coach talked about individual players missing practice, but in that last press conference he said the team as a whole didn't practice as much.  Did that impact experimentation on alternative approaches such as playing a zone?
  • This is a philosophy of basketball question.  It's known that Brad Underwood played his college ball for Jack Hartman.  I'm guessing that his philosophy about the game stems from that experience.  When I was a kid, the Knicks had Walt Frazier, who also played for Hartman (at SIU before Hartman went to K-State).  The Knicks were a great defensive team in the glory years, but the NBA wouldn't allow a zone then.  If a call could be arranged with Walt Frazier to discuss basketball philosophy, would he be anti-zone like Underwood or would he take a more pragmatic approach?

This question is a bit idiosyncratic to me as it results because my brother is at Michigan (an administrator in the medical school) and during the season we exchange some emails about our respective teams.  Further, since Michigan was in a Thursday-Saturday slot while Illinois was in a Friday-Sunday slot for the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, I ended up watching both teams play.  

Michigan also lost its point guard for the NCAA Tournament and clearly had a worse Big Ten season than Illinois.  Yet Michigan is in the Sweet Sixteen and Illinois is out.  This is a very small sample and we're taught not to draw conclusions from small samples as those conclusions are typically not robust.  Nevertheless, I can't help but wondering about the following.  Might Michigan basketball provide a different model for how to do things with Illinois basketball?

  • Do match-ups matter more than seedings in determining which team is likely to prevail in a tournament game?  If so, how would one score match-ups so fans might understand this in advance of the game?
  • If practice time is limited and if it is evident that the team will make the NCAA tournament, might it make sense to use the remaining Big Ten games as a form of experimentation/practice for the NCAA tournament?  This would include games in the Big Ten tournament.  If done too overtly, the league wouldn't like it.  So I'd imagine such experiments/practices would happen only for segments of games.  Is it likely that more teams will do this in the future so they can be more versatile when they need to be?
  • Hunter Dickinson often played at the top of the key and shot several 3-pointers and sometimes would feed Moussa Diabaté in the post.  This provides an example of what was mentioned above.  Kofi, who only started to play basketball late in his career, doesn't have the ball skills that Hunter has.  But, given that his free throws have improved via practice, it would seem he could learn to make the alley oop pass to Omar Payne, who has the ability to really sky. Why not try something like this? Kofi might be tempted to shoot threes if deployed this way.  From the perspective being articulated here, why not let him?  It's also possible that Kofi would learn to make the pass on a back door cut by one of the wing players?  That too would be a plus.
  • Michigan also played zone from time to time.  It would show zone and then go back to man-to-man.  Used this way, it might be that the main effect was to make the offense have to adjust to consider what type of defense is being played.  Coach Underwood often talks about the team displaying toughness and players on opposing teams have discussed how physical Illinois is on defense. Switching styles from man to zone makes it more of a chess match.  Would adding that dimension be useful to Illinois or would it take away from the toughness?  

The Illini's Achilles heel this season was turnovers.  In asking questions about this, I don't want to consider the play of Curbelo. I think discussing particular players can be counterproductive.  So I will restrict these questions to a team play focus.

One similarity between the Loyola game last year and the Houston game this year is that both teams trapped in the half-court and were successful in doing that, meaning they generated a fair number of turnovers that way. On the other hand, when teams tried to press Illinois full court, we were fairly comfortable in breaking the press.  From a coach's point of view, what is the difference between the two?

  • What are the textbook ways to break the trap?  Do those methods require players with certain types of skills to implement the approach?  Does the Illinois team possess that skill set?
  • In breaking the press, we would often use a lob pass to get the ball past mid court.  Are lob passes too dangerous against the trap because the ball is in the air too long and gives time for off-ball defenders to intercept the pass?
  • What about splitting the double team?  Should a good point guard do this regularly?  Or is it a too high risk play, even for a talented point guard?  Here I'm thinking about Trent and if he didn't have the pink eye whether that would be a good play for him.
  • How much motion should there be from players who are off the ball and where should they be moving to?  One has the sense that if they are moving and their defenders are behind them, then the pass from the double-teamed player should lead the player much in the same way that a quarterback leads a wide receiver in football.  But how does that get done?
  • Does the height of the player relative to the height of the defender matter for this.  When the wing players are Trent, Da'Monte, Jacob, and Alfonso then none of them are particularly tall.  Might that make for a challenge when the defensive players are taller?
  • Should the center be brought away from the post just to be used as a release valve against the double team?  
  • If the trap is defeated a few times at the start, might the other team refrain from using it later in the game?

Now let's consider shooting, particularly the 3-point shot.   There is the notion of a good shot versus a bad shot.  I'd like to get at what determines one from the other.  Player confidence seems to have a role here.  I'd like to get at that too.

Coach Underwood seems to be a practitioner of data driven decision making and has recently quoted statistics about Illini defense, particularly on how it plays ball screens.  But he seems less likely to talk about data with regard to shooting.  Sometimes he'll say generally that he was pleased with the shot attempts (or not) but he won't discuss particular shots other than that he seems to have a preference for the extra pass being made.  So, let's list the factors that might batter for making a good shot.  How important are each of these?

  • The skill of the shooter.  (Alfonso has the reputation as a great shooter.  Trent and Jacob are also very good.  Da'Monte was excellent last year, but not as good this year.)
  • The position on the court.  (Presumably, closer to the basket is easier.  Also, it may matter whether the shot comes from the top of the key, one of the corners, or some angle in between.)
  • How tight the defense is.  (An unguarded shot might have a certain form to it.  A tightly guarded shot might have to be adjusted so the defender doesn't block it.)
  • A shot off the pass versus a shot off the dribble.  (I tend to think a shot off the pass is higher percentage, but for Trent and Alfonso that might not be the case. Better spacing with the defender might be easier off the dribble if it isn't already there off the pass.)
  • When the shot is taken during the game.  (Trent seems to have an uncanny ability to make shots near the end of a half if the game is otherwise close.  Other players might tense up in that situation because they are worried about the consequences.)
  • How the player did on the previous shot in the game and how the player shot during the previous game.  (This might be the best way for us to consider player confidence.  Make a shot and play may begin 'to feel it.'  Make two or three in a row, and the play definitely is feeling it.  The issue is whether the hot hand is all psychological gobbledygook or is a very real thing. )  This gets to the last point in this section.
  • Do the players themselves have a good intuitive sense of when they should be the one shooting the ball versus when they should be passing it to a teammate?  (My sense of things is that the younger players tend to call their own number too much.  The seniors have a better sense of this.  Da'Monte may be the only player who doesn't call his own number enough.)

The last question here is about preparing a game plan based on certain assumptions about the opponent versus having to improvise during the game as some of those assumptions proved incorrect and there then becomes a need to have a more realistic approach.  In the Houston game our three-point shooting was woeful.  Part of that was Jake's injury, which probably was understood in advance but there might have been a hope that he could play through it.  But Alfonso and Trent also shot poorly at the start.  Luke Goode and R.J. Melendez both substituted in as a consequence.  I, for one, didn't anticipate that happening.

This gets to what the coach tells the media in advance of the game and whether there is a great reluctance then to give out information about injured players, so the opponent can't use that information in its own preparations.  In particular, did Houston know about Trent's pink eye before the game started?  Trent's poor shooting early in the game can be attributed to that. Alfonso's poor shooting then might have been a consequence of feeling even more pressure on himself than usual.  Were Luke and R.J. effective soon after they were put in because Houston didn't anticipate that happening?  But did they eventually wear down (particularly Luke) because they too didn't expect to play so many minutes?

  • From a fan's point of view, not knowing about Trent's pink eye while the game was being played made it feel like the team was choking, the same feeling we had during the Loyola game.  Once we learned about Trent's eye, after the game, a different feeling took hold.  How could we have expected Illinois to win the game under the circumstances? 
  • Given this, and thinking back to the Loyola game, I wonder if Ayo had some relapse from his injury that even the Batman mask couldn't protect.  Is it possible to learn about that now, after all this time? Or are fans left to their own devices to guess at the answer to this question. 

* * * * *

Another reason for writing this post is that I started to look at Twitter for fan responses after the Houston game.  Too much of it was shooting from the hip and not thoughtful enough, at least for my tastes.  Of course, each fan is entitled to his or her opinion. But there isn't much to learn for these Tweets.  It is much more about fan venting than it is about fan learning. 

So I can imagine a more thoughtful approach where the coach, or one of his representatives, takes on one of these questions and gives a well thought out response to each one, quite possibly documented with evidence either from game video or from the data analytics of the games.  And if there is video of practices as well, perhaps that too could be used as evidence to support the responses. 

It might be that the response to just one of these questions takes 5 minutes or more, so there might be individual videos made of the responses to each question.  (In the verbiage we now have for online learning, these would be called micro-lectures.)  And it might be that even the coach doesn't feel expert enough to answer some of these questions in full, but he is sufficiently well connected in the coaching profession to get somebody else who does have good answers.  The video in this case would be a dialogue between the coach and this outside expert.  

Personally, I would love to watch stuff like this.  My guess is that many Illini fans would likewise be interested in them.  There would be learning for them to the extent that they had a strong prior opinion on something about the team, but the video contradicted that while nonetheless making a reasonable case.  Not everyone likes to have their bubble punctured in this way, as a rule.  My guess, however, is that given how the season did end more fans would be willing to hear and accept these explanations.  

Let me close by noting that I deliberately tried to avoid writing about Andre and Coleman.  In a different era (1983-84) the Illini got very mature play out of sophomores, particularly Bruce Douglas and Efrem Winters, but they were each starters the year before.  Coleman didn't get much playing time a year ago and Andre missed a lot of playing time this year.  So the comparison isn't fair this way.  It may be that then, with the 3-point shot not yet part of the game and no shot clock as well, a more deliberate style of play made sense that may not make sense now.  I'm not sure of that.  It would be another question to ask.  But asking about whether players once in the game pursue their own agenda and not the game plan the coach wants them to pursue seems an unfair question for the coach. The press, I think, often asks such unfair questions.  Then the players and the coaches may try to dodge those.  Perhaps it's an interesting game of cat and mouse, but it doesn't help fans learn about what was really going on.


Saturday, March 19, 2022

About The Tournament and About The Illini

The current bracket is available here, with all the results from the round of 64.  I've tabulated this by seeding to give a sense about favorites winning vs upsets.  No doubt point spread in the game matters too, but that was more data collection than I wanted to do.  Here are the results, just based on the seeding. (Note that in this round the seeding of a team and its opponent sum to 17.

 
The seeding gives an ordinal ranking of the teams.  The higher ranked team should be more likely to win.  For how much more likely, you need a cardinal ranking.  Also, it is possible that teams are not ranked correctly.  For example, Yale, which lost pretty handily to Purdue, was a 14th seed.  The Ivy League is not known for its basketball.  Should Yale have been a 16th seed, so that Purdue would have faced sterner competition in that round?  Who knows?   My sense of things is that the ordinal rankings are pretty much correct and there is a sharp difference in quality between the number 16 seeds and the number 1 seeds.  But then there is a large plateau that rises between the number 15 seeds and the number 2 seeds. Both the 11 and 12 seeds did pretty well, which is some indicator of that plateau.  

Now let me turn to the team I root for, Illinois.  They won, but just barely.  They played pretty terribly.  Something the announcers didn't comment on is that Jacob Grandison, who had been a starter most of the year, came off the bench and got very few minutes.  This was because of injury.  It was the first game back for him since he was injured.  Having a starter out like that upsets the the team play and the the individual performance of other players.  A second point that the announcers didn't make is that when André Curbelo wasn't playing much, Trent Frazier was the point guard and was playing at a high level.  As Curbelo has gotten more minutes, he has become the point guard, and in my mind dribbles the ball more than he should, as he waits for an opportunity to open up.  So Frazier has become another wing player.  As a point guard, his three point shooting was quite good.  But his shooting has deteriorated in this new role. 

If Illinois has good three-point shooting, we are a top-level team.  If not, we are pretty mediocre.  We can grind, which we did against Chattanooga.  That will keep the game reasonably close.  But we won't win that way against better opposition.  

Now let me talk about the relatively new additions to the lineup, both Curbelo and Coleman Hawkins.  While Curbelo has been coming off the bench, Hawkins has been starting recently.  Both have big upsides, but both are high variance and make quite a few mistakes in every game they play.  Some of that is just sloppy play.  Another part is that each shoots the ball from the outside too much, in my opinion.   They should be looking to pass, sometimes to other wing players, but hardly did that in yesterday's game. 

Our three point shooters are much more accurate off the pass than they are off the dribble.  (Plummer may be an exception after he has made his first three and starts to feel it.)  Since teams will be having multiple players guard the paint, to be ready to double team and even triple team Kofi Cockburn when he gets the ball, other wing players should be in good shooting position and should be ready for the ream to pass it to them.  Feeding Kofi is off course necessary to do, but there needs to be some variety to how the team goes about things.  

Let's hope we can move the ball better against Memphis and play well in that game, rather than simply grind things out. But one wonders how much the quality of play can change from one game to the next. We'll see.

Wednesday, February 23, 2022

My Analysis, Which Is Not Worth Very Much

I only read bits and pieces about Ukraine, Putin, economic sanctions and the rest so I confess to being more ill informed than most.  Yet I'm surprised that the Pandemic has not come up much if at all in this context.  I think it should.  Beforehand, the impression we were given is that the Pandemic is entirely out of control in Russia.  

Do dictators of Putin's ilk still have to care about their popularity with the public?  My thought is that if the economic and social environment is more or less static then no, they don't need to care about public opinion.  But if the social situation is deteriorating, and surely the Pandemic being out of control would do that, then the dictator's power is threatened. At this point, some serious misdirection can be be helpful to the dictator.  Fighting a war in Ukraine is for Putin the analog of the-election-was-stolen for Trump.  

And here is the thing, which it seems is out of reach for those reasonable policy maker types who impute rationality to the the other side of the conflict.  Once a major political misdirection is taken, there is no backing down from it.  Premised on a falsehood, or a series of falsehoods, it is in effect a move to go all in with the play.  

With that, if the NATO+ side is to win in this situation, eventually it will have to do so on the battlefield, something it has already shown a distaste for by relying on economic sanctions.  All else equal, and assuming for the moment that even Putin wouldn't resort to nukes, I think the other side probably can win on the battlefield, with drones and other modern hardware.  But then there is this not so secret weapon that Putin has.  

The reactionary right in many of the NATO+ countries is aligned with Putin in ways that are at once repellent to us and yet obvious.  Jingoism has been on the rise.  Strongmen become champions to the jingoists.

There has been talk about civil war in the U.S. for quite some time now, completely divorced from any discussion of Putin and Ukraine.  That an actual civil war with fighting commences, somehow triggered by Putin's aggression (though for now the full connection is hard to spell out) means the other side in the fighting will have to deal with internal conflict that might very well escalate.  And that could create sufficient diversion that Russia prevails in Ukraine.

Let me close with a general observation about game theory a la using a strategic analysis to game out likely outcomes in a conflict.  Even events that are deemed zero probability can impact what will actually happen.  So rather than ignore them entirely, we're better off assuming their highly unlikely but still possible.  This will get us to a more robust solution.

The reader can take all of the above as simply me being paranoid, which I'm prone to do on occasion.  So, let's conclude with Joseph Heller's famous line:

Just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.