I first read Eric Hoffer's The True Believer over 50 years ago, as an undergrad in a political science class. I can't say that I remembered much of what Hoffer said there. But something of what I read must have stuck with me because near to the time when I retired I started to read other things written by Eric Hoffer and I found that compelling reading. (Also see a post from a couple of years later called Interweaving.) By then I had read a compilation of Hoffer's works contained within a single volume titled Between the Devil and the Dragon. The True Believer is one of the works contained therein. But as I had read it before, I skipped over it in this reading. I read it again quite recently, drawn to it by a peculiar consideration. I was watching a TV series on Netflix called The Following. Season 1 is about a cult that follows a messianic leader who also is a mass murderer, and cult members were well aware of this. That awareness did not dilute their devotion to the leader. I had no feel for what motivated cult members and I wanted to better connect with them to get more out out of the show.
I thought the story would be more interesting to me if I had even just a bit of intuition as to their inclinations as cult members. I told myself I might find that in a re-read of The True Believer, even though that book is about mass movements rather than cults. Apart from the sheer number of members, I'm not really sure about the difference between the two. Others may have a firmer grasp about what separates the two notions. Perhaps one of them can elaborate on that in their own writing. Here, I will just push on with my narrative.
Hoffer is very strong on identifying the core motivation of the true believer. It emerges from utter self-contempt. The person has completely lost faith in himself and feels that he can't be redeemed. So he needs to find an outer focus that he can devote all his attention to and totally submerge his individuality to that. Hoffer takes that self-contempt as a given and does not explore its source. In The Following there are bits about the family background of cult members and that they very well might have had abusive parents. I want to note this possible explanation and observe it is likely highly idiosyncratic. Below, I will suggest another possible explanation, one with a socioeconomic basis, that gives a more systematic view of who the true believers are. Once this alternative explanation is admitted, one can then consider whether a systematic undoing of this cause is possible and, if so, whether a restoration of the individuality and humanity of each (now former) true believer can be achieved.
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Another TV miniseries I've watched recently is Abraham Lincoln, also on Netflix, which is partly a documentary with the commentary of many different historians and partly a dramatization of various scenes that were critical in Lincoln's lifetime. The last of the three episodes is devoted to the ending of the Civil War, Lincoln's attitude about restoring the peace, expressed in the brief time he had left until his assassination, and then the calamitous event itself. Although Lee surrendered at Appomattox, unlike many in his Cabinet Lincoln didn't feel a need to extract additional punishment from the South, the war itself being enough punishment as it was. For example, Lincoln wanted Southern soldiers to be able to keep their horses, so they could return to their farms and start with the planting. Lincoln regarded them as Americans, first and foremost, and they needed to return to life of ordinary citizens. Hoffer actually talks about Lincoln as cast in the same mold as Gandhi, unusual in their gentleness and prescient in being able to see the full picture of the consequences. Alas, Lincoln wasn't there to lead the efforts of Reconstruction.
It occurred to me that our current national politics has the feel of being engaged in another Civil War. In the event that the Democrats sweep at the national level elections in 2028, that may very well seem like they have won this version of the Civil War. It might make sense then to try to emulate Lincoln and ask what can be done to pursue the peace.
Others might argue that this is putting the cart before the horse and we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves. The focus should remain on the 2026 elections. Let's make the best out of that.
From the viewpoint of current politics, that other perspective might very well be right. But my own perspective is different. Back when I was doing research on theoretical models of industrial organization, the model would often be in the form of a two-stage game. Game theory being what it is, the right theoretical approach is to first solve for the equilibrium in the stage-two subgame. This subgame equilibrium can have different outcomes depending on how stage one plays out. Understanding this, one can than determine the equilibrium of the overall game, which is termed 'subgame perfect.' That means the players of the game in the first stage correctly anticipate how the game will subsequently unfold and that predictions based on the model don't need to rely on the players having unrealistic expectations about the future. So, my thought is that modeling this future in a way that it can be unfolded back to now might be helpful in better understanding what will happen in the present (and in the near future).
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It is fairly straightforward to cast MAGA-type Republicans who follow Trump as true believers a la Eric Hoffer. They would be the ultimate losers in the current Civil War should the Democrats sweep in 2028. (The plutocrats would also be big losers, but the plutocrats are not the focus in this piece, so for now we'll cast them aside.) If Hoffer is right and they indeed feel nothing but self-contempt at present, might they somehow be redeemed to have a modicum of self-respect and with that tolerance for others who are unlike them? Would achieving this be a necessary component of a program that aimed to eliminate racism in our country? That is my Lincolnesque noodling for now.
Let's drill down as to the source of their self-contempt. The vast majority of these people will have been steeped in a patriarchal mindset and with that they have the presumed role as breadwinner within the family. Disruption in the labor market, which makes them lose their jobs and for which other employment isn't readily available, can then serve as a first cause among a series of causes. And that first cause really should be taken as exogenous, totally outside the control of the individuals. This first cause in itself leads to substantial frustration, especially if there hasn't been adequate savings made ahead of time to guard against the situation, and even if there are such savings once the situation seems to be permanent, those initial savings will run out. That frustration may then be taken out on other family members, who react accordingly. And the frustration may cause excessive drinking, alcohol abuse, and other anti-social behavior that can both lead to family breakdown and make the person unemployable in the future, even if the labor market were to rebound. Initially, the person may feel the entire process is reversible. Eventually, however, it will seem permanent and fully explain the self-contempt. (While I'm speculating here as to causation, I really don't think the story I've told is very far-fetched.)
So, the question arises, can the process really be reversed, given sufficient commitment of resources, time and patience, as well as an understanding of the emotional needs the person will have as he re-establishes his identity? It would do well to have some small-scale social experiments done ahead of time, both to test the feasibility of a program of this sort and to learn how to implement such a program so it is more likely to succeed.
On the other hand, there may be a sizable number of blue-collar types who are not MAGA adherents. I don't have the data on this, so am just making a wild guess here. But, to push a metaphor perhaps too far, just as the Southern soldiers were returning to their farms after the Civil War, many of the Northern soldiers were returning to their farms as well. An overall program to benefit soldiers returning from the War could target both groups.
Then, one might imagine a Federal government program to rebuild the middle class, allowing working Americans to enter it, with a focus on massive construction projects. It is well understood now that there are enormous needs for new sources of clean energy and affordable housing. There is also something we don't talk about much at all - that a good chunk of the population resides in drought areas. Massive desalination projects and building water pipelines to bring the clean water to where the people are makes sense. The work to be done on such projects would need to pay a decent wage and provide reasonably good benefits. And, such work must endure, probably for decades to come.
This, however, is not enough. Those who have been emotionally damaged won't be able to seek out such work, at least not at first. They will require treatment of some sort and a means of support until they are able to return. That too must be provided. The overall program might then be called Rebuilding America and Rebuilding Americans, though I admit my skills at marketing are second-rate and somebody else who is better at it should come up with with a more convincing promotion.
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I hope that what I have provided here is sufficient to pique the interest of the reader and give them some intuition as to what is needed, even if they find my ideas more than a little off base. They then might very well want to try their hand at noodling with a Lincolnesque solution of their own. I encourage them to that. We need an approach that will capture the interest of many. Even if it isn't in the official party platform, it could well influence voting behavior in the 2028 election. My hope is that it would help bring the country closer together.
In addition, there may need to be some blunt talk before then, because it is clear that the plutocrats who have engaged in extensive efforts to reduce their own tax burdens will resist these efforts. It is my view that the MAGA types have been the unwitting stooges of the plutocrats in this regard. Pointing that out may not be a way to win many converts. But while it may not be evident in prospect, it should become obvious in retrospect. Should that happen, it will seal the deal.
